
August 12, 2009
Investors paused for much of the week, placing on hold the market’s summer rally, which has sent the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 up more than 15% in the past three weeks. Much of the serenity within the major indices was due to the anticipation of traders who were awaiting the government’s unemployment report, which was released on Friday.
The markets fluctuated throughout the week. Mixed economic news and surprising corporate earnings news had been the catalyst to Wall Street’s recent rally, but investors are being cautious knowing that the upswing is still a long ways off from proving its sustainability.
For the first time in nearly two years, one of the world’s largest insurers, American International Group Inc. (AIG), announced at the end of last week’s trading that the company profited in the 2Q, the first gain since the 3Q of 2007. Following the company’s announcement on August 7, shares jumped more than 20% by the close.
AIG, the leading international insurance organization with operations in more than one hundred thirty countries and jurisdictions, confirmed that profits during the period came in at $1.8B, or $2.57 per share, in sharp contrast to the previous year’s net loss of $5.4B, or $41.13 per share. Adjusted for payments to preferred shareholders, net income came in at $311M, or $2.30 per share.
Edward Liddy, Chairman and CEO of AIG commented on the company’s results, "The primary drivers of our positive second quarter results were reductions in net realized capital losses, primarily due to the decline in other than temporary impairments resulting from the adoption of new accounting guidance and improved market conditions. Positive valuation changes for our Maiden Lane interests on a net basis, continued reductions in the risk profile of the AIG Financial Products Corp. portfolio, a reduction in the allowance for recoverability of deferred tax assets, reflecting the effect of recently announced transactions, and gains on hedges not accounted for under FAS 133." (Financial Accounting Standard No. 133 is an accounting standard that provides companies with the ability to measure all assets and liabilities on their balance sheet at “fair value.”)
Having received more than $100B in federal aid, AIG is now more than 80%-owned by the American taxpayers. Prior to the company’s earnings release, the stock had gained more than 70% leading up to the August 7 announcement.
Although no guidance on the company’s upcoming quarterly performance was released, CEO Liddy added, "We continue to focus on stabilizing and strengthening our businesses, but expect continued volatility in reported results in the coming quarters, due in part to accounting charges related to ongoing restructuring activities. In particular, we expect that permanent reductions in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York credit facility related to the issuance of the preferred interests in the ALICO and AIA special purpose vehicles, which upon closing will substantially reduce our debt to the FRBNY, will result in accelerated amortization of a portion of the prepaid commitment asset approximating $5 billion before tax."
Leading up the company’s earnings release, shares of AIG were trading in the low-teens. By the close of trading on August 7, shares had gained more than $14 per share, more than doubling in price.
With the new week’s trading commencing, the company’s stock continued their upward march, adding nearly 6%, or $1.56, to conclude the August 10 session at $28.70 per share. During the past year, AIG’s stock has traded as high as $503.20 and as low as $6.60 per share.
Added to the list of top performing stocks are Gibraltar Industries Inc. (ROCK), a leading manufacturer, processor, and distributor of metals and other engineered materials for the building products, vehicular, and other industrial markets. The stock’s performance was due in large part to the company’s recent earnings report, which came in ahead of market expectations, despite being down considerably year-over-year.
For the 2Q Gibraltar recorded net income of $72K, or breakeven, compared to the previous year’s 2Q profits of $20.1M, or $0.67 per share. Revenues, meanwhile, came in at $217.1M, much lower than the previous year’s tally of $347.2M, a decrease in sales of more than 37% year-over-year.
Analysts, in the meantime, were looking for the steel processor and building-materials supplier to post a quarterly loss of $0.09 based on overall revenues of $229.9M.
With the company’s recent release outperforming analysts’ projections, KeyBanc Capital upgraded the stock from a “hold” to a “buy” rating. The brokerage increased their target price for the company to $15 per share, and raised their 2009 earnings estimate from a loss of $0.40 per share to a profit of $0.15 per share. KeyBanc also adjusted their 2010 EPS outlook upwards from $0.42 per share to $1.15 per share.
Looking at similar results as KeyBanc, an analyst from R.W. Baird increased their rating on ROCK, from “neutral” to “outperform,” while increasing their price target from $7 per share upwards to $12 per share.
"We are incrementally more confident that ROCK's normalized earnings power could exceed $1.50 per share, indicating that current valuation may not credit ROCK sufficiently for its improved cost structure," commented Peter Lisnic, analyst at R.W. Baird, on Gibraltar’s earnings potential in 2010.
Over the course of the stock’s past five trading session, ROCK gained nearly $5 per share, or more than 55% in market value. However, the novelty of the stock’s recent performance did not transfer over into the new trading week. By the sound of the closing bell on August 10, shares of ROCK slipped more than 4%, falling $0.52 to end the session at $11.54 per share.
Rounding out the list of prosperous companies over the past week was Domtar Corp. (UFS), a major North American manufacturer of pulp and forest products, fine papers and packaging that fosters sustainable development through the rigorous application of its integrated forest management policy. Much like the other top performing stocks of the week, shares surged on news of the company’s quarterly earnings release.
Reporting for the 2Q, Domtar announced that the company booked net profits of $48M, or $1.12 per share, versus the prior year’s loss of $45M, or $1.05 per share. However, excluding one-time charges, a refundable tax credit of $79M, Domtar would have posted a net loss during the period of $33M, or $0.76 per share.
As for overall sales, the company witnessed revenues slip from $1.64B to $1.32B, a decrease in sales of nearly 20% year-over-year. Analysts, within the industry, were looking for the pulp and paper manufacturer to record a quarterly loss of $0.74 per share on total revenues of $1.29B.
Commenting on the company’s results was Daniel Buron, CFO at Domtar, "Pulp prices have increased significantly in the past few weeks, and we expect average prices in the third quarter to be higher than the average prices experienced in the second quarter."
The company did not release any tangible figures related to the upcoming 3Q or full-year results. Nevertheless, Domtar representatives did mention that the company remains optimistic about the overall economic recovery and that market conditions within the paper industry should continue to stabilize.
Gaining just under $9 per share during the first week in August, shares of UFS continued their trek higher into the second week of the month. With the sound of the closing bell, shares of Domtar added more than 3%, or $0.88, in the August 10 session, closing the day at $28.30 per share.
Throughout the past year, shares of UFS have traded as high as $78.36 per share, and as low as $6.12 per share.
Leading the pack of biggest percentage losers throughout the past week was Huron Consulting Group Inc. (HURN), which was involved in a scandal that would require the company to restate their financial records between 2005 and 2007. The restatements, which relate to the company’s acquisitions of four business entities, are due to charges related to the way payments were made to sellers and the profits that were distributed among certain Huron employees.
Huron, an independent provider of financial and operational consulting services, employs their expertise in accounting, finance, economics and operations to a wide variety of both financially sound and distressed organizations. These operations include Fortune 500 companies, medium-sized businesses, leading academic institutions, and healthcare organizations.
The company, which was an offshoot of collapsed accounting giant Arthur Anderson following the 2002 accounting scandal involving Enron Corp., announced that the top management team would leave the firm following the bookkeeping scandal. The company affirmed that nearly half of the company’s earnings throughout that period would be wiped out due to the misreported costs relating to those acquisitions.
Subsequent to the company’s announcement, shares of HURN plunged more than 69% by the close of the August 3 trading session, losing more than $660M in market value. In addition, Huron reduced their 2009 revenue outlook from a range between $730M to $770M, downwards to a range between $650M to $680M.
By the close of the first week of trading in August, shares of HURN plunged nearly $31 per share. Heading into the new week of trading, the company’s stock continued to decline, as investors remain cautious about the company’s ongoing concern. By the close of the August 10 session, shares of Huron slipped nearly 3%, losing $0.36 to conclude the day at $13.55 per share.
Over the past 52 week, the company’s stock has traded as low as $11.30 per share and as high as $66.45. With Monday’s closing price, the stock currently sits only 16% above their yearly low.
Providing specialized mission-critical technical and professional services to civilian and military government agencies and commercial customers, DynCorp International Inc. (DCP), confirmed early last week that the company’s stock slipped within the marketplace, despite an increase in the company’s earnings year-over-year.
Releasing results from the company’s 1Q, net earnings for the period advanced to $20.6M, or $0.36 per share, up nearly 15% from the previous year’s 1Q profits of $18M, or $0.31 per share. With income increasing, so did revenues, which jumped almost 10% year-over-year, climbing from $716.8M to $785.2M.
Analysts were looking for the provider of mission-critical services to civilian and military government agencies to record quarterly profits of $0.35 per share with overall revenues coming in at $795M.
With soldiers currently pulling out of Iraq, DynCorp will remain in country, facilitating the removal of personnel and equipment from the war-torn landscape. Adding to the company’s workload, DynCorp revealed that they were gearing up from an increase in military forces in Afghanistan.
In early-July, DynCorp announced a lucrative government contract to lend support to troops in southern Afghanistan for the construction of bases and logistics services. The company’s new Army Logcap award was the first such award for DynCorp since the late 1990s.
The contract, estimated to bring in more than $5B over the next five years, allowed the company to increase their full-year guidance from a range between $3.25B to $3.45B, upwards to a range between $3.3B and $3.5B.
Notwithstanding all the positive news of the week, the company’s shares still slipped throughout the past five trading sessions, losing just over 16% in market value. With a nearly $4 per share decline, the stock rebounded by the close of the August 10 session, adding $0.31, or 1.8%, to end the day at $17.26 per share.
During the course of a year, shares of DCP have traded as low as $9.95 per share and as high as $22.03 per share.
Rounding out the list of top percentage losers for the week ending August 7 was Manulife Financial Corp. (MFC), a leading provider of financial protection products and investment management services to individuals, families, businesses and groups in selected international markets. In conflicting reports, the company confirmed that profits during the 2Q advanced, yet the company announced that they were reducing their dividends, which pushed the price of the stock lower by the close of the week.
For the recent period, Manulife posted net earnings in the 2Q of C$1.76M, or C$1.09 per share, versus the previous year’s 2Q profits of C$1M, or C$0.66 per share. Revenues, in the meantime, advanced as well, climbing from C$7.56M to C$11.4M, an increase in sales year-over-year of nearly 51%
Analysts, within the industry, were looking for Canada’s largest insurance company to post quarterly profits of C$0.62 per share.
Commenting on the company’s performance was Donald Guloien, President and CEO at Manulife, "Retaining more of our earnings is the most effective means of building capital, while still providing an attractive yield for our shareholders who will benefit as we deploy our capital for growth."
In a separate development, the board of directors at Manulife stated that the company’s quarterly dividend would be reduced by 50% to C$0.13 per share from C$0.26 per share. The reduction in dividends would preserve nearly C$800M on an annualized basis, allowing the company to refocus on building their capital reserves.
Trailing the company’s earnings announcement, shares of MFC lost more than 10% in the U.S. markets. By the end of the week, shares had slipped more than 16% to conclude the week at US$20.37 per share.
Kicking off the new trading week, Manulife shares rebounded from the pervious week’s loss, adding nearly 2%, or US$0.36, to end the August 10 session at US$20.73 per share. Over the past year, shares of MFC have traded as high as US$37.55 and as low as US$6.94 per share.
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